MOIT VIETNAM | Ranking of Vietnam's economic growth in the CLMV
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Ranking of Vietnam's economic growth in the CLMV
According to a report by Maybank Kim Eng (ASEAN's leading financial group) released on May 20, Vietnam is leading the economic recovery among the four emerging economies in ASEAN (CLMV). The report illustrates the recovery in the region as slow and uneven, in which Vietnam’s export and production revenue far exceed pre-pandemic levels.
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Consumers have positive sentiment, purchasing power increases again right after the quarantine period because of the epidemic
Vietnam is considered to successfully prevent a recession in 2020 with positive economic growth, full-year exports up 6.9%. Exports increased 29.6 percent in the first four months of 2021, with machinery, computers, and electronics increasing sharply.
Revenue generation and retail are also recovering to pre-Covid-19 levels, although a recent wave of new cases is limiting mobility to about 20% below baseline. However, Maybank is still maintaining its forecast for full-year 2021 gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 6.5% for Vietnam. Cambodia is now forecast to have a weaker 4.2% recovery, down from 5.9%; Laos is expected to grow 4.8% instead of 6%, and Myanmar could see a decrease of 8%, instead of 3%.
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Processing canned fish for export at Tac Cau Fishing Port Industrial Park, Binh An Commune, Chau Thanh District (Kien Giang)
Cambodia and Laos are facing more Covid-19 infections. Myanmar's situation is complicated by an unstable political situation that could push the country into a deep recession. As a result, Myanmar is forecast to be a laggard as Vietnam, followed by Cambodia and Laos, are gradually benefiting in terms of exports and production this year.
The economic recovery speed in all four CLMV countries mainly depends on vaccine deployment, but vaccine procurement remains a challenge, said the leading financial group in ASEAN. To date, governments have ensured sufficient doses to vaccinate between 30 and 60% of the population respectively because of limited financial resources, supply constraints, and logistical challenges.
According to Maybank, Cambodia leads in the vaccination campaign. About 12.6% of Cambodia's population has been vaccinated at least one dose of the vaccine. While Laos and Myanmar have begun vaccination campaigns, implementation has been slow, with 6.5% and 3.1% respectively.
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