Vietnam's economy grew at a rate of 4.48% (yoy) in the first quarter of 2021, equal to the rate of growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 and higher than the rate of growth in the same period in 2020 (3.82% (yoy).  In Q1/2021, the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector grew by 3.16% (yoy); the industry and construction sector grew by 6.30% (yoy); the service sector grew by 3.34% (yoy)

In the first quarter of 2021, the total number of registered enterprises in the country was 29.3 thousand, with a total registered capital of 447.8 trillion dong and a total number of registered employees of 245.6 thousand, a decrease of 1.4 percent in the number of enterprises, an increase of 27.5 percent in registered capital, and a decrease of 0.8 percent in the number of employees over the same period in 2020. In Q1/2021 the average CPI increased by 0.29% (yoy), the smallest increase in the last 20 years. Inflation (yoy) is expected to rise rapidly beginning in April 2021.

Throughout Q1/2021, the central rate tended to rise slightly, reaching 23,244 VND/USD at the end of the quarter. The exchange rate at commercial banks fell in January and has since risen slightly, ending at 23,170 VND/USD. The domestic gold price is constantly high in comparison to the global gold price because supply becomes scarce after the government tightens border management to prevent the COVID-19 epidemic, while people's need to store value in gold continues to rise.

Vietnam’s economy in Q1/2021 grew at 4.48% (yoy), the same growth rate as the previous quarter. Factors that could support growth included effective government control of the disease, expectations for economic prospects due to the ratification of the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and Investment Protection Agreement (IPA); the acceleration of disbursement and construction of key public investment projects; waves of investment movement to disperse risks from US-China trade war and take advantage of investment incentives in Vietnam; a stable macroeconomic environment with moderate inflation, creating favourable conditions for the implementation of growth support policies. However, Vietnam is also facing many risks and challenges due to the unstable world economic environment. The resurgence of COVID-19 in many countries, accompanied by lockdown measures, can extend the disruption of the supply chain in 2021, and geopolitical conflicts between large countries can cause an open economy like Vietnam to suffer.

Considering the positive and negative factors affecting the current Vietnamese economy, the experts make forecasts of growth under different scenarios of the epidemic situation. The establishment of the new Party-State leadership apparatus, with the new government, promises a dynamic economic outlook in 2021 and beyond. In addition, as long as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to be stably controlled in the country and the world economy begins to flourish due to the gradual removal of lockdown measures, we project that Vietnam’s economy in 2021 can reach a growth rate of between.6,0 and 6.3%. Although inflation has not become a threat to the macro-economy, risks continue accumulating. In particular, the asset market shows numerous signs of bubble formation, which are likely to bring risks to the credit system and economy.