In 2021's opening hours, the Mekong region was dealt a setback as the Myanmar military ousted the country's democratically elected government. The ironic timing of the coup—on the tenth anniversary of Myanmar's democratic transition—cast a gloomy pall over the region's political scene in 2021, which was already blemished by COVID-19 and the great power confrontation between the United States and China. While Myanmar's return to military rule is severe, it is not the only recent event to highlight a shift toward authoritarianism in the region. After the 2019 election, Thailand seemed to have returned to democracy. However, the country has since used more brutal measures against demonstrators and the opposition to retain its authoritarian dictatorship. With Prime Minister Hun Sen, the longest reigning dictator in the world, assuming the role of a king and appointing his son as his successor, Cambodia has likewise made the shift from competitive to hegemonic authoritarianism.

Early in 2021, the two communist governments in the region, Vietnam and Laos, held their quinquennial party congresses. During those gatherings, new top leaders were selected for each nation. Those who were hoping for more significant political upheaval should be left feeling dissatisfied by the outcome. While reforms have stagnated and civil society has been further repressed, 77-year-old party apparatchik Nguyen Phu Trong has been general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam for a third consecutive term. Thongloun Sisoulith, 75, was just named president of Laos.

In light of the region's ongoing struggles with COVID-19, the regressive political climate couldn't have arrived at a worse time. The area was hit badly by the Delta variety, which resulted in millions of infections and over 75,000 fatalities, after a relatively successful 2020. While at least 65% of the populations of Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam have been immunized, Laos has yet to achieve even 50%. There is less than a 75% coverage rate in Myanmar, with less than 25% of the population having gotten both doses.

Additionally, the export-driven, labor-intensive, and service-oriented sectors of the area have been annihilated by the lockdown and border restrictions. The resurgence in exports in 2021 was predicated on the low point reached in 2020, when governments were less prepared to impose severe restrictions. The two economic juggernauts of the Mekong region, Thailand and Vietnam, are expected to expand at more moderate rates of 1% and 2.58 %, respectively. The region's 250 million young people make rapid economic recovery the top policy priority for 2022.

The region's predicament in handling the rising US-China rivalry is exacerbated by its economic weakness and authoritarian inclinations. China is still the region's largest trading partner, but its rising political influence and aggression on the economic and maritime fronts has some Mekong leaders worried. They know that Beijing could use the economic coercion campaign it waged against Australia whenever it wants to "teach them a lesson."

The United States is still looked upon as the go-to alliance. In spite of Washington's help for regional development, especially its huge vaccine contributions, Mekong cities doubt US commitment. The country has played a disappointing role in the Myanmar conflict, has strained relations with Thailand over that country's deteriorating democratic position, and has recently imposed a weapons embargo on Cambodia.

Even while there are risks, the nations of the Mekong need Beijing's money to improve their shabby infrastructure and revitalize their sputtering economies. China has used its economic might to win influence in Cambodia, ensure Laos's overdependence on China, and begin thawing relations with Myanmar's military government. Lackluster prospects for democracy in the area result from an overreliance on China. There are already indications that regional governments are adopting some of China's authoritarian policies and practices, including as its cybersecurity legislation and its brutal treatment of civil society.

The area is still at risk for the emergence of novel COVID-19 variations because of the low vaccination rates (especially in Laos and Myanmar) and the strain on public health resources.

The refugee influx and increased drug trafficking that have resulted from the Myanmar conflict have made that country the single greatest security concern to the Mekong region. Since Cambodia, Beijing's 'ironclad brother,' will soon be assuming the chairmanship of ASEAN, and China is gearing up for the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress in 2022, geopolitical tensions in the area may increase and sow discord among the nations in the region. In the past, when these two occurrences happened, a decade ago, ASEAN was driven into turmoil in the middle of China's aggressive operations in the South China Sea.

Long-term existential concerns from climate change and other human-made actions, such the damming of the Mekong River, compound the region's immediate dangers. Mekong leaders, however, lack the will to take the required swift action.

Beyond the two Mekong nations, neither Laos nor Thailand made any climate change commitments at COP26. To meet its goal of being carbon-neutral by 2060, China, the world's largest builder of mega-dams, will need to keep drinking hydropower for the foreseeable future. This will make life more difficult for millions of people living downstream in the area.